@manychester

Put all my relevant statistics into an AI tool and here’s the result it came up with, should be interesting compared to mine

4:00 AINTREE
Randox Grand National Handicap Chase (Class 1) – 4m 2f 74y – Good to Soft

Race Analysis Summary

My predicted finishing AI order:📌 ALL EW SELECTIONS 

1. 🔘I Am Maximus 15/2  Proven Grand National winner (2024) with top-class Aintree record; Authorized sire line now further boosted by the 2013-2025 GN fences data (3 wins from just 9 runs, 33.3% strike rate, +15.00 P/L – same sire as Tiger Roll)but has top weight
2. 🔘Mr Vango 80/1 Strong recent Aintree form and stamina; dam’s sire Beneficial also features prominently in the GN fences stats (3 wins).
3. 🔘Grangeclare West 10/1  Third last year, recent winner, and sired by Presenting (joint-top in the data with 3 GN fence wins).

Horse(s) that could outperform their odds (outside top 3):

🔘Jagwar 10/1  7yo (perfect age bracket), progressive chase form, recent Cheltenham efforts, weight 11-9 (close to ideal) and no previous GN run; fits more of the historical winner template than several bigger names.
🔘Stellar Story  28/1  Consistent recent RPRs and strong late-finishing style, though Shantou sire is not highlighted in the GN fences pedigree table.

Key positives that shaped the selection:
• Recent form at Aintree (strongest indicator) plus proven GN fences performers.
• Course & distance suitability – all three have explicit Aintree success on similar ground with “ran on strongly” comments.
• Weight and handicap – well treated on peak RPR vs current OR.
• Trainer form – W P Mullins dominant with high RTF% and strong 14-day record.
• Jockey statistics – top Aintree/National performers aboard.
• Rest days – comfortably inside the ideal 30-70 day window.
• Ground – best RPRs on GS/soft.
• Pedigree (new factor from provided data) – I Am Maximus (Authorized) and Grangeclare West (Presenting) both by sires with multiple GN fence wins; this significantly reinforces their proven ability over these unique obstacles.

Any notable negatives or risks:
• Big-field jumping test – fence errors can happen even to the best.
• Recent form blips for Mr Vango (pulled up last two) – fitness critical.
• Top-weight pressure on I Am Maximus, though he has carried it before.

Looking at the Grand National fences pedigree data (2013-2025) actually strengthens the AI original top three. I Am Maximus and Grangeclare West gain extra confidence from sires that have already produced multiple winners over these exact fences. Mr Vango’s dam line also ties in positively. Stellar Story remains a lively outsider but gains no additional pedigree support from Manychesters . My predicted order and reasoning stand firm.

LOOKING AT THE STATS HERE

The first selection is a WIN BET then cross exactas all three

13:05 – Conference & Events Novices’ Hurdle (Class 4, 2m1f, Soft)

 1. Johnny’s Jury  2. Kilnesare Flight  3. Knomorediamonds

Johnny’s Jury (Jamie Snowden/Jonathan Burke) looks the standout. Strong recent win at Exeter (impressive form), penalty looks manageable, and Snowden has a good record at Carlisle (38% strike rate). Form is rock-solid, and he handles soft ground.

Knomorediamonds drops in trip after good handicap effort

CARLISLE 1:05

13:35 – Racing TV Handicap Chase (Class 3, 2m, Good to Soft)

1. Hello Judge  13/2 2. Soft Risk  3. Grain d’Oudairies

Hello Judge (Ann Hamilton/Danny McMenamin) is a course specialist (strong horses-for-courses ) and trainer Ann Hamilton excels here (37% at Carlisle). Recent form is competitive, weight looks fair, and he suits the track/ground.

Soft Risk (Nicky Richards) returns from a break but has progressive chase form and Richards’ stable is in decent Form  (course trainer stats positive).

Grain d’Oudairies (Donald McCain/Brian Hughes) is the market leader with solid recent wins; McCain’s 14-day form is reliable.

CARLISLE 1:35

14:05 – Come Racing At Carlisle Maiden Hurdle (Class 4, 2m3½f, Soft)

1. He’s On Fire  2. Johnny Moonshine  3. The Dog Thief

He’s On Fire (W P Mullins/Mr P W Mullins) is the clear one to beat. Useful French form, joined a top yard (Mullins one-trick trainer ), and the step up in trip suits his pedigree (stamina on dam side). Soft ground ideal.

Johnny Moonshine (Donald McCain) has shown promise and McCain knows the track.

The Dog Thief (T Ellis) is a point winner with potential; Ellis stable is running into form

CARLISLE 2:05

14:35 – Book Your Hospitality Handicap Chase (Class 3, 3m, Good to Soft)

1. Upfordebate 5/1  2. Saint Davy  3. Sound And Fury

Upfordebate (Patrick Neville/Brian Hughes) is in red-hot form (4 wins from last 5, easy Sedgefield scorer) and looks well handicapped despite a rise. Brian Hughes is in good nick.

Saint Davy (Jonjo & A J O’Neill/Jonjo O’Neill Jr) has strong recent placed form and the O’Neill combo is a “one-trick” positive here. Suits the staying trip.

Sound And Fury (Ben Pauling/Ben Jones) is a previous course winner (November here) and Pauling targets this meeting

15:05 – Conditional Jockeys’ Novices’ Limited Handicap Hurdle (Class 5, 2m3½f, Soft)

1. Parish Star  2. Scairp Dubh (or similar progressive type)  3. Fine As Wine

Parish Star stands out with recent Southwell win and potential for more (conditional jockeys’ race suits). Form looks progressive, and soft ground will help

15:35

1st: Soldier’s Leap 7/2
2nd: He’s Bresilian
3rd: Vampire Slayer

16:05 – Watch Racing TV Now Handicap Chase (Class 4, 2m4f approx., Good to Soft)

1. Wolfburg  2. Trac (or Largy Train)  3. Consistent performer

Wolfburg has progressive form. Drop in trip or ground suitability could help.

Trac has recent wins in headgear and acts on any going.

CARLISLE 4:05

16:35 – Mares’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 5, 3m1f, Soft)

1. Keppel Queen 9/4 2. Maura Jeanne  3. Vroomoz Eile

Keppel Queen (Olly Murphy/Sean Bowen) is a big player here and looks consistent, placed recently, and Murphy’s stable is firing (course trainer stats solid). Weight looks an advantage stamina on mums line suits the trip. Soft ground fine.

Maura Jeanne (Ian Duncan) is in excellent form 

Vroomoz Eile is a course winner good each-way chance.

CARLISLE 4:35

All subject to update 📌
Ayr (Soft going)
– 1:13 Mares’ Maiden Hurdle: Coolkatie fell when challenging strongly last time; Apples Jane WON 3/1
– 1:43 Handicap Hurdle: Jakana ew 25/1 Follow Charlie
– 2:13 Novices’ Chase: Wendigo WON
– 2:43 Novices’ Hurdle: Stede Bonnet WON Sanilam
– 3:13 Handicap Hurdle: Buzz Iceclear Felicie and Du Maquis 18/1 ew 3ed
– 3:43 Handicap Chase:  Great Pepper 14/1 ew 2ED 17/2
– 4:13 NH Flat Race: Blue Du Neuf and The Skecher WON

Lingfield (AW) (Standard Polytrack)
– 1:20 Handicap (5f): Bang On The Bell and Hello Luna
– 1:50 Handicap (1m): Sovereign Wealth
– 2:20 Handicap (1m): Poke The Bear WON 5/4

– 2:50 Classified Stakes (7f): Royal Jet WON 15/8
– 3:20 Handicap (1m2f): Didaar  and Annexation
– 3:50 Maiden Stakes (6f): Chhota Saab and Bucklow hill WON 9/4 
– 4:20 Handicap (6f): Invincible Speed WON 5/2 and Porfin

Wincanton (Heavy going)
– 1:33 Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle: Coolanna WON EV and Strong Run
– 2:03 Novices’ Handicap Chase: Mutley Crew WON 5/2
– 2:33 Maiden Hurdle: Pourquoi Pas Papa and Galashiels WON 5/4
– 3:03 Handicap Hurdle: Bradman and Inchagoill Lady
– 3:33 Handicap Chase: Collectors Item and My Silver Lining
– 4:03 Hunters’ Chase: Mr Glass and Thunder Rock

Day one

Close but no cigar 🍀

📌Subject to updates 📌

Cheltenham Festival